Latest Update on Tesla's Robotaxi Incident Data at NHTSA
With all the speculation around the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) and the robotaxi rollout “stalling”, investors have perhaps lost sight of the most critical of all markers for Tesla, namely its robotaxi safety record. So, I decided to analyze the latest incident reports data for Tesla from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). It makes for excellent reading for Tesla investors and should silence many of the doubters.
Tesla silences the critics
Some commentators have used the lack of details about the reported robotaxi incidents—Tesla said the information was confidential—to suggest there are serious problems with Tesla’s robotaxis. Two incidents did result in injuries, including one that required hospitalization, and the missing details gave some media outlets a chance to issue alarmist warnings.
By mid-May, Tesla chose to share the details of these incidents, and the information turned out to be more positive than most people expected.
Analyzing the Tesla robotaxi incidents
According to NHTSA data, there were 17 unique incidents. Eight may have been Tesla’s fault, while nine were likely caused by others. Let’s start by looking at the nine incidents that were not Tesla’s fault.
- A metrobus made a right turn, and “the bicycle rack in front of the metrobus sideswiped” the Tesla, which had stopped at a red light. Incident: 13781-13648
- The Tesla reduced speed due to a dog running into the road. However, “The dog ran toward the Tesla and made contact” with the Tesla’s bumper. Incident: 13781-11787
- A motor scooter struck the rear end of a stopped Tesla. Incident: 13781-13237
- A car moving in the wrong direction reversed in a car park, striking the side of the Tesla. Incident: 13781-11784
- A stopped Tesla was hit by a pedicab as it rode by. Incident: 13781-11786
- An SUV “crept forward and rear ended” the Tesla. Incident: 13781-11507
- The Tesla was rear-ended by a sport-utility vehicle (SUV) in a right-turn-only lane while it yielded to cross traffic from the left. Note that this was one of two minor injuries and the only one that resulted in “hospitalization,” as the safety driver later sought medical evaluation. Incident: 13781-11375
- A car that had previously stopped rear-ended the Tesla while it was stopped (oncoming vehicle approaching) in a left-turn-only lane. Incident:13781-14631
- A truck rear-ended the Tesla as it had stopped at a stop sign. Incident: 13781-14630
None of these incidents seem to be a cause for concern.
Where "Tesla" was responsible
Turning to the eight that will cause concern, the first two can be practically dismissed, as they are the teleoperator’s fault!
- Under the teleoperator’s control, the Tesla “made contact with a temporary barricade for a construction site” at low speed. Incident: 13781-14043
- The teleoperator drove “up the curb and made contact with a metal fence.” Note this is the other incident that resulted in a minor injury, but this time without “hospitalization.” Incident: 13781-11459
Now the heart of the matter: the remaining six incidents that might give cause for concern.
- The Tesla struck a wooden pole at low speed while reversing out of a blocked alley. Incident:13781-13645
- The Tesla’s right-rear tire struck a curb corner while reversing into an empty parking space. Incident: 13781-13646
- The Tesla’s “left side mirror made contact with the heavy-duty tow truck’s left side of the bed” in a street with minimal space due to a parked car and the truck. Incident: 13781-13644
- The Tesla suffered a punctured rear right tire on the road and while pulling over, “rear right tire made contact with the corner of a right curb.” Incident: 13781-13647
- The Tesla’s mirror made contact with a trailer’s gooseneck hitch sticking out into the street. Incident 13781-11986
- The Tesla “made an unprotected left turn into an entrance of a parking lot”, and as it entered, it “made contact with a metal chain.”Incident 13781-11687
What it means to Tesla investors
Low-impact contacts with objects like wooden poles, metal chains, a gooseneck hitch, and the side of a truck are a concern, but these issues seem manageable for Tesla to address.
Moreover, the two minor injuries in the incident data were likely caused by another car and a Tesla teleoperator. While these incidents don’t tell the full story of how many times the safety monitor intervened, they do provide strong evidence that Tesla’s robotaxi is delivering where it counts, which creates a lot of confidence in one of Tesla’s key growth catalysts, particularly when v15 of full self-driving (FSD) comes out.
Latest Update on Tesla's Robotaxi Incident Data at NHTSA
With all the speculation around the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) and the robotaxi rollout “stalling”, investors have perhaps lost sight of the most critical of all markers for Tesla, namely its robotaxi safety record. So, I decided to analyze the latest incident reports data for Tesla from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). It makes for excellent reading for Tesla investors and should silence many of the doubters.
Tesla silences the critics
Some commentators have used the lack of details about the reported robotaxi incidents—Tesla said the information was confidential—to suggest there are serious problems with Tesla’s robotaxis. Two incidents did result in injuries, including one that required hospitalization, and the missing details gave some media outlets a chance to issue alarmist warnings.
By mid-May, Tesla chose to share the details of these incidents, and the information turned out to be more positive than most people expected.
Analyzing the Tesla robotaxi incidents
According to NHTSA data, there were 17 unique incidents. Eight may have been Tesla’s fault, while nine were likely caused by others. Let’s start by looking at the nine incidents that were not Tesla’s fault.
- A metrobus made a right turn, and “the bicycle rack in front of the metrobus sideswiped” the Tesla, which had stopped at a red light. Incident: 13781-13648
- The Tesla reduced speed due to a dog running into the road. However, “The dog ran toward the Tesla and made contact” with the Tesla’s bumper. Incident: 13781-11787
- A motor scooter struck the rear end of a stopped Tesla. Incident: 13781-13237
- A car moving in the wrong direction reversed in a car park, striking the side of the Tesla. Incident: 13781-11784
- A stopped Tesla was hit by a pedicab as it rode by. Incident: 13781-11786
- An SUV “crept forward and rear ended” the Tesla. Incident: 13781-11507
- The Tesla was rear-ended by a sport-utility vehicle (SUV) in a right-turn-only lane while it yielded to cross traffic from the left. Note that this was one of two minor injuries and the only one that resulted in “hospitalization,” as the safety driver later sought medical evaluation. Incident: 13781-11375
- A car that had previously stopped rear-ended the Tesla while it was stopped (oncoming vehicle approaching) in a left-turn-only lane. Incident:13781-14631
- A truck rear-ended the Tesla as it had stopped at a stop sign. Incident: 13781-14630
None of these incidents seem to be a cause for concern.
Where "Tesla" was responsible
Turning to the eight that will cause concern, the first two can be practically dismissed, as they are the teleoperator’s fault!
- Under the teleoperator’s control, the Tesla “made contact with a temporary barricade for a construction site” at low speed. Incident: 13781-14043
- The teleoperator drove “up the curb and made contact with a metal fence.” Note this is the other incident that resulted in a minor injury, but this time without “hospitalization.” Incident: 13781-11459
Now the heart of the matter: the remaining six incidents that might give cause for concern.
- The Tesla struck a wooden pole at low speed while reversing out of a blocked alley. Incident:13781-13645
- The Tesla’s right-rear tire struck a curb corner while reversing into an empty parking space. Incident: 13781-13646
- The Tesla’s “left side mirror made contact with the heavy-duty tow truck’s left side of the bed” in a street with minimal space due to a parked car and the truck. Incident: 13781-13644
- The Tesla suffered a punctured rear right tire on the road and while pulling over, “rear right tire made contact with the corner of a right curb.” Incident: 13781-13647
- The Tesla’s mirror made contact with a trailer’s gooseneck hitch sticking out into the street. Incident 13781-11986
- The Tesla “made an unprotected left turn into an entrance of a parking lot”, and as it entered, it “made contact with a metal chain.”Incident 13781-11687
What it means to Tesla investors
Low-impact contacts with objects like wooden poles, metal chains, a gooseneck hitch, and the side of a truck are a concern, but these issues seem manageable for Tesla to address.
Moreover, the two minor injuries in the incident data were likely caused by another car and a Tesla teleoperator. While these incidents don’t tell the full story of how many times the safety monitor intervened, they do provide strong evidence that Tesla’s robotaxi is delivering where it counts, which creates a lot of confidence in one of Tesla’s key growth catalysts, particularly when v15 of full self-driving (FSD) comes out.