Tesla investors and Wall Street analysts are preparing for the upcoming second-quarter delivery numbers. They are always a major talking point as, unlike most other automakers, Tesla sells direct, so its delivery numbers are its electric vehicle (EV) sales volumes for the quarter.
As every investor knows, the real value-creation activity in the company this year will be laying the foundations for a robotaxi ramp in 2027 (notably by validating and releasing v15 full self-driving (FSD) software and advancing Optimus development). Still, it’s also important that Tesla retains its dominant position in the EV market, even as its rivals pull back on investment. Here are the numbers you need to know.
Tesla updates the Wall Street second-quarter delivery consensus
The update on Tesla’s website calls for:
- Model 3/Y deliveries of 392,625, representing 5% growth on the same quarter of 2025
- Other Models deliveries of 12,978, representing a 24.8% growth on the same quarter of 2025
- Total deliveries of 406,024, representing 5.7% growth on the same quarter of 2025
A few points. First, the strong increase in “Other Models” expectations reflects the ramp in
Cybertruck production. It would be an interesting development around a much-maligned product (from a sales perspective). The increase in 3/Y probably comes down to the Model Y and would act as strong evidence that the real issue in the first half of 2025 wasn’t anything to do with Elon Musk’s political opinions, or rivals eating its lunch (even though they effectively subsidized vehicles to do so), or Tesla’s fading popularity. It was simply down to the Y’s refresh, causing buyers to pause and wait for the new model.
Latest Wall Street estimates
Wall Street analysts have been updating their estimates ahead of the release. As regular readers already know, JPMorgan has an interesting history of covering Tesla, with the new analyst, Rajat Gupta, wasting no time in turning positive on the stock while JPMorgan was working on SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO).
That optimism somewhat soured as the analyst walked back a previous estimate of 430,500 deliveries to a new estimate of 420,000. Fair enough, but I’m not sure JPMorgan is the first place I’d look for Tesla estimates.
The new JPMorgan estimate matches the updated estimate from the Goldman Sachs (not usually seen as a Tesla bull) analyst of 420,000. The analyst had previously estimated 405,000.
As discussed previously, Barclays hasn’t been particularly positive on Tesla’s prospects, but the analyst (who has an equal-weight rating on the stock) expects a relatively high figure of 418,000.
RBC Capital’s Tom Narayan is one of Wall Street’s mild bulls, and interestingly, his estimate of 405,000 is pretty much in line with the consensus, and the 425,000 estimate is also penciled in by one of Wall Street’s mild bears, UBS.
What it means to Tesla investors
The key conclusion, if the estimates are confirmed, is that the narrative that Tesla is inexorably losing global market share is over. That might not hold in the U.S., but then again, Tesla is defending a ridiculously high 54.2% market share in EVs.
Tesla investors and Wall Street analysts are preparing for the upcoming second-quarter delivery numbers. They are always a major talking point as, unlike most other automakers, Tesla sells direct, so its delivery numbers are its electric vehicle (EV) sales volumes for the quarter.
As every investor knows, the real value-creation activity in the company this year will be laying the foundations for a robotaxi ramp in 2027 (notably by validating and releasing v15 full self-driving (FSD) software and advancing Optimus development). Still, it’s also important that Tesla retains its dominant position in the EV market, even as its rivals pull back on investment. Here are the numbers you need to know.
Tesla updates the Wall Street second-quarter delivery consensus
The update on Tesla’s website calls for:
- Model 3/Y deliveries of 392,625, representing 5% growth on the same quarter of 2025
- Other Models deliveries of 12,978, representing a 24.8% growth on the same quarter of 2025
- Total deliveries of 406,024, representing 5.7% growth on the same quarter of 2025
A few points. First, the strong increase in “Other Models” expectations reflects the ramp in
Cybertruck production. It would be an interesting development around a much-maligned product (from a sales perspective). The increase in 3/Y probably comes down to the Model Y and would act as strong evidence that the real issue in the first half of 2025 wasn’t anything to do with Elon Musk’s political opinions, or rivals eating its lunch (even though they effectively subsidized vehicles to do so), or Tesla’s fading popularity. It was simply down to the Y’s refresh, causing buyers to pause and wait for the new model.
Latest Wall Street estimates
Wall Street analysts have been updating their estimates ahead of the release. As regular readers already know, JPMorgan has an interesting history of covering Tesla, with the new analyst, Rajat Gupta, wasting no time in turning positive on the stock while JPMorgan was working on SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO).
That optimism somewhat soured as the analyst walked back a previous estimate of 430,500 deliveries to a new estimate of 420,000. Fair enough, but I’m not sure JPMorgan is the first place I’d look for Tesla estimates.
The new JPMorgan estimate matches the updated estimate from the Goldman Sachs (not usually seen as a Tesla bull) analyst of 420,000. The analyst had previously estimated 405,000.
As discussed previously, Barclays hasn’t been particularly positive on Tesla’s prospects, but the analyst (who has an equal-weight rating on the stock) expects a relatively high figure of 418,000.
RBC Capital’s Tom Narayan is one of Wall Street’s mild bulls, and interestingly, his estimate of 405,000 is pretty much in line with the consensus, and the 425,000 estimate is also penciled in by one of Wall Street’s mild bears, UBS.
What it means to Tesla investors
The key conclusion, if the estimates are confirmed, is that the narrative that Tesla is inexorably losing global market share is over. That might not hold in the U.S., but then again, Tesla is defending a ridiculously high 54.2% market share in EVs.
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